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Tuesday, 04.10.2011
Putin's third term: it is more than 'More of the same'
Thomas Fasbender, Moscow. Right up to the end, in public and behind the high and sound-proof walls of the Kremlin, the two camps fought over the candidacy of President and Prime Minister for their favorites in the tandem .
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Observers were going round in circles. One spoke of Putin s alleged desire for power, the other on the continuous effort of the ambitious Svetlana Medvedeva on promoting the current President, who all but lacks the necessary alpha genes. It reminds us of the time when Kremlin observers were predicting the future of the USSR out of half sentences and seating arrangements.
But nobody in the publishing world knows the actual relationship within the rather unique tandem. The future President Putin - whose election may be assumed for certain - faces enormous challenges. A simple Business as usual and building on the success of the first eight years will not be enough. The mood within the society has changed.
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The consistently present patriotism - resulting from his first presidency - stands in contrast with rising discontent. People have now different expectations as to the turn of the century, they are used to growth and demand their rights and justice, especially from the government and its still corrupt, working to rule bureaucracy. The middle class and young entrepreneurs, particularly in the provinces, are united over growing resentment in the light of abuse of power, corruption and inefficiency. These are the people who spend their holidays abroad where they notice angrily that even in Turkey (ancient rivals) everything is better organized than in the Russian homeland.
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This sentiment was the driving force behind the efforts to secure a second term for Medvedev. But the President did not have any power within the organization or the minds of the population which is essential for a politician of his rank. Putin, the small KGB major from Dresden, possesses this power. When one interprets his new candidacy as a sign of post Soviet restorative stagnation, it only reflects the lack of understanding of the Russian way.
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The word modernization that Medvedev has made to a trademark must also be seen against this background. The West interprets this with typical western views. Since Peter I it has been understood the Russian desire to take on technologies of the West but never to be like the West. From this perspective, even Vladimir Putin can still become a modernizer.
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A warm glow of a benevolent world economy will not be shining over his third term. The greater are the challenges: increasing efficiency, corruption, a crumbling infrastructure and especially the growing up of a new generation.
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The new/old President cannot afford stagnation as this would very quickly lead to confrontation. New social camps are emerging slowly and steadily. Although the constitution would allow him to stay for two terms, until 2024 as President, it is far from agreed that Putin will do so.
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Thomas Fasbender has been living in Moscow since 1992. He is CEO of Checkpoint Russia and writes regularly commentaries for Russia News.
Original German text can be found here
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