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Monday, 04.06.2007
Putin’s new steeliness on the eve of G8
Moscow. It’s not that he’s stopped smiling. It’s just that there will be no more concessions. In the run-up to the G8, Putin is showing himself self-confident and unyielding. The “leading industrial nations” are irritated.
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If in past years, Moscow turned the other cheek when slapped in the face, Putin’s new style is to give as good as he gets. He counters criticism of Russian policing of demonstrations with a nod to the use of truncheons in the West. And encroaching US rocket bases encounter the threat of new Russian weapons.
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And in response to allegations that the ‘KGB’ poisoned former agent Litvinenko, the Russians say it was British intelligence that eliminated him, to stop him talking to Moscow.
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Western Europe acts surprised about the new ‘harsh notes’ coming from the Kremlin. But this tendency has been around for two years now, and it was started by America. The influential Republican Senator and now presidential candidate John McCain held a widely-heeded speech, in which he called the Kremlin’s politics totalitarian internally (the cases Khodorkovski and Gussinksi) and aggressive externally (Chechnya, the Tusla peninsula and the Russian minority in Riga).
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McCain proposed isolating Russia and barring her from international organisations. This policy was not adopted by the White House, but the Russia-phobic lobby is still rolling. Washington’s allies in this include the governments in Kiev, Warsaw, Vilnius and Tbilisi, - and also political stupidity and posturing in Russia itself.
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But it is indisputable that not Russia, but the USA is expanding its zone of influence and engaging in military operations all around the world. It is the USA, not Russia, that is waging war in the Gulf. There are no Russian anti-missile defences being built, say, in Cuba or Venezuela, and Russia is not trying to assert control over Texan oilfields, but trying to reassert control over her Siberian oilfields.
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Russia has always strictly observed all energy supply obligations. It is understandable that Russia is not keen to internationalise its fossil fuel reserves, however much pressure is piled on to do so. The Yamal peninsula is, after all, Russian, and everything follows from this.
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This might seem anti-American or geopolitical determinism. But the fact remains: the Russian political and economic elites, especially groups originating from the intelligence services, the military and interior ministry, are not prepared to surrender the last remnants of the Soviet Union. There is no reason for them to do so. Instead, they will defend their position internally and externally.
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It makes no difference whether the president’s name is Vladimir Putin, Sergei Ivanov or something else entirely, and for how long he or she governs. The ‘national interest’ will be the sole criterion for the state. And international pressure will only strengthen the will to resist. Even the Judoka Putin is no longer content with passive resistance.
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The conclusion for Europe: either co-operate with an American policy of isolation and destabilisation of Russia, with all consequences this entails – or extend new forms of co-operation towards the East. Despite opposition from Warsaw, Vilnius and Kiev – and from Washington.
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A reasonable first step would be to change the official terminology of the G8 at Heiligendamm. Apparently we are supposed to believe that a meeting will take place between “the world’s leading industrial nations and Russia, alongside guests from newly industrialising countries”.
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If you are serious about co-operation with Russia, it is probably unproductive to call Italy and Canada ‘leading industrial nations’ and treat Russia, with its huge economic, scientific and industrial potential, as strictly second rate.
Gisbert Mrozek, Moscow (gim/.rufo/Moskau)
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