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Monday, 24.09.2007
Putin could not nominate his successor, even if he wanted to
Moscow. According to the latest Kremlin rumour, Vladimir Putin has an overriding personal interest in quitting office in 2008: It’s the only way he sees of divorcing his wife Ludmilla without a scandal. But when will he announce his successor?
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The eternal question of when Putin will name his successor is simplistic and popular, but fundamentally flawed: “Putin controls everything, Putin wants to stay in power at all costs. Russian politics is a puppet show. Putin pulls all the wires.“
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Russian politics is not a puppet show
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Putin, in fact, is not in charge of everything (not even in his private life). He himself is subject to external influences. He has obligations. In 1999, he came to power as steward. He can depart again in 2008, and hand over to another steward who will steer the same course.
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Putin’s politics are the result of a number of interacting vectors. Politics in Russia is somewhat different than in Western Europe. But politics exists and it does not follow the reductionist pattern often imputed by Russia watchers.
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Putin could appoint a “successor” – who might, however, not please the electorate
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Putin can promote a group of prospective future presidents, but not simply name a successor. Even the Kremlin’s PR gurus admit that they cannot guarantee that the enormous trust Putin enjoys can be easily transferred to another person.
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This means that unofficial primaries have to take place to sound out how prospective candidates come across with the public. This is exactly what is taking place at the moment, and it is very serious. As are Putin’s statements that he will leave the choice to Russia’s citizens, and only state a preference at the last minute.
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There are still numerous Russia watchers who stubbornly stick to their dogmas how ever often reality proves them wrong. Their chief hobbyhorse: the power-hungy ex-KGB man in the Kremlin controls all of Russia with the help of the secret service, plots and conspiracies, carrot and stick. The actual facts just do not interest these people.
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The dogmatists serve up false account after false account – and cling to them all the more insistently when events discredit them.
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Short history of misinterpretation
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First of all, they told us for years on end that Putin would change the constitution and run for a third term. Whenever Putin said otherwise, he was labelled a liar: He was only saying this, we were told, because he wants to change the constitution.
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Putin will use some pretext to declare a state of emergency and postpone elections, was the next tale. Because after all, we all knew he was desperate to hang on to power at all costs. This interpretation lasted for around two years, no matter what Putin did or said.
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When it finally became clear that Putin would leave office in 2008, people started running around in confusion. The search began for new interpretations - that would conform with the central dogma: Putin controls everything, Putin wants power for ever.
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Different theories on the succession
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The most popular theory that Putin would name a successor and use the Kremlin’s propaganda steam roller to bring him to power – something that even Kremlin spin doctors judge impossible.
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Castle 2008, then castle 2012?
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There was also the theory that Putin would entrust the office of president to a weak successor of his choice, and then become Prime Minister himself. Some small constitutional changes would strengthen the office. Then in 2012, a second castling would see him return as president.
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Putin to go into business
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Then there was the theory that Putin would move to head Gazprom or a new energy holding. If he controlled two-thirds of Russian capital, Putin would also control politics, went this theory.
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Putin to be Deng Xiao Ping
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Finally even on this website the theory was forwarded that Putin could become a sort of Russian Deng Xiao Ping, heading some new political organisation to ensure continuity and stability in the country.
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In fact, the presumption is correct that Putin wants his policies to be continued. How, and by whom, this is to be done will, however, be the result of political processes in the country.
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Current divvying up of influence will make elections less fraught
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A large-scale chaotic redistribution of power will not take place. The current reshuffles and anti-corruption campaign pre-empt any such development, and indicate how much Putin wants the elections and their victor to be free of any confusion and scandal.
Gisbert Mrozek, Moscow (gim/.rufo/Moskau)
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