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Thursday, 08.09.2011
Chubais forecasts ten difficult years for Russia
Moscow. Russia´s economy is entering a new era: budget deficits, lower growth and painful reforms are looming, according Ex-Prime Minister Anatoli Chubais, now Head of the state holding “Rosnano”.
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Economic growth will not be reaching the levels before the crises, at an annual level of eight percent, he said at a trade forum in Moscow. For the next ten years it will reach only around four percent.
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Commodity based economy leads to a dead end
According to Anatoli Chubais, even the four percent increase might not be achievable, as long as Innovations are not the driving force for the economy as the development model based on natural resources has been exhausted.
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In the recent past, Russians experienced an incredible increase in living standards, said the top manager in State Services. An average salary in 1998 was at a level of around 60 to 70 dollars, today it is around 600 to 700 dollars. But fortune will not last forever, said Chubais. This dynamic has come to an end.
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Learning from Europe - for example how to handle sovereign debt
Over the next five to seven years, the state has to learn how to handle a growing budget deficit, said the former Russian Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. This means that the key programs, announced by the highest level have no chance of being implemented, Chubais said pessimistically.
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Russia also has to learn from European experiences in this case. Hard and painful reforms are ahead for the country.
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Russian pension system - unaffordable luxury
Particularly pressing is the issue of the inefficient pension system, 30 percent of which is covered by the state budget. This model is no longer feasible with a deficit budget.
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We need to increase the retirement age and a whole range of parameters too, said Chubais. Currently it is 60 years for men and 55 for women. The average life expectancy of men lies at 61 years.
Original German text can be found here >>>
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